MGI(688114) 华创证券·2024-11-13 04:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4][8]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 15.19% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue reaching 1.869 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -463 million yuan [1][2]. - Despite short-term performance pressures due to macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical factors, and market competition, the company is expected to benefit from a recovery in domestic demand and expansion into overseas markets [2][4]. - The company continues to invest heavily in research and development, which is essential for its growth phase and product innovation [2][4]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 660 million yuan, a decrease of 13.22% year-on-year and a 2.75% decline from the previous quarter. The net profit for this quarter was -165 million yuan [1][2]. - Cumulative sales of gene sequencers reached over 670 units, marking a 4% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in specific models such as DNBSEQ-G99 and DNBSEQ-E25 [3][4]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are -565 million yuan, -232 million yuan, and 117 million yuan, respectively, indicating a gradual recovery [4][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic gene sequencing market, with expectations of increased market share due to the trend of domestic substitution and supportive government policies for equipment upgrades [4][10]. - The report highlights the potential for the gene sequencing industry to recover as the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates, which may stimulate demand [4]. Valuation - The target market capitalization for the company is estimated at approximately 27 billion yuan, with a target price of 65 yuan per share based on PS and DCF valuation methods [4][10].