轮胎行业月报：成本面存回落预期，需求稳定运行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [41]. Core Insights - The report highlights that raw material prices remain high but are expected to decline, which could ease cost pressures for tire manufacturers [16][39]. - Production of semi-steel tires is stable, while full-steel tire production has seen a decrease [11][39]. - Domestic demand for tires is steady, and there is potential for recovery in overseas markets [39]. Cost Side - The average price of key raw materials in October 2024 includes: - Butadiene at 12,631.25 CNY/ton, down 3.70% month-on-month but up 46.70% year-on-year - Natural rubber at 2,055.26 USD/ton, up 5.31% month-on-month and 35.90% year-on-year - Styrene-butadiene rubber at 16,523.91 CNY/ton, up 3.49% month-on-month and 30.63% year-on-year - Carbon black at 7,908.06 CNY/ton, down 3.99% month-on-month and down 20.66% year-on-year - Nylon cord fabric at 21,750 CNY/ton, down 0.85% month-on-month and down 1.79% year-on-year [3][4]. Production Side - In September 2024, the production of rubber tires in China reached 96.6 million units, an increase of 11.00% year-on-year and 1.68% month-on-month - In October 2024, full-steel tire production was 10.54 million units, down 12.31% month-on-month and down 11.65% year-on-year - Semi-steel tire production was 56.27 million units in October, down 0.60% month-on-month but up 4.22% year-on-year [11][39]. Demand Side - Domestic demand remains stable, while overseas demand is expected to recover, particularly in Europe and North America, driven by seasonal sales [17][39]. - The report notes that the export of new inflatable rubber tires from China in September 2024 was 54.27 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.38% but a month-on-month decrease of 12.27% [15]. Industry News - Several companies have reported their third-quarter results, showing significant revenue growth, such as Sailun Tire with a revenue of 23.628 billion CNY, up 24.28% year-on-year [32]. - Bridgestone announced an investment of 85 million USD to expand tire production capacity in India, expected to start in early 2025 [34]. - Multiple tire manufacturers are closing overseas factories due to profitability issues, with at least 15 factories reported to be permanently shut down globally [35]. Monthly Summary and Outlook - The report anticipates that raw material costs may ease, and production capacity utilization for semi-steel tires will remain high, while full-steel tire production may see slight improvements [38][39].