Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry [4] Core Insights - The marginal decline in M1 has narrowed, and the year-on-year increase in residential medium- and long-term loans has shown signs of recovery [3][4] - In October, M1 decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, a reduction of 1.3 percentage points compared to September, which aligns with the manufacturing PMI data indicating a return to expansion [3] - M2 increased by 7.5% year-on-year, up 0.7 percentage points from September, potentially linked to the stock market's activity driving deposits into securities companies [3] - The new residential medium- and long-term loans in October amounted to 110 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 40 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2023, suggesting a potential recovery in the real estate market following the implementation of supportive policies [3] - Corporate loans saw a significant decline, with new loans at a near five-year low, indicating a continued downward trend in growth [3] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The banking sector has experienced a mixed performance, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index showing a 5.1% increase over the past month and a 22.8% increase over the past three months [3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on specific banks, including Postal Savings Bank, CITIC Bank, Industrial Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Qilu Bank [4] Key Company Financials - Postal Savings Bank: 2024E EPS of 0.88, PE of 5.85 [6] - CITIC Bank: 2024E EPS of 1.24, PE of 5.27 [6] - Industrial Bank: 2024E EPS of 3.70, PE of 4.90 [6] - Jiangsu Bank: 2024E EPS of 1.71, PE of 5.17 [6] - Hangzhou Bank: 2024E EPS of 2.81, PE of 4.84 [6] - Ningbo Bank: 2024E EPS of 4.13, PE of 6.16 [6] - Qilu Bank: 2024E EPS of 1.01, PE of 5.20 [6]
银行事件点评：M1降幅边际收窄，居民中长期贷款增量同比回暖
Guohai Securities·2024-11-13 06:32