软件与服务:美国大选尘埃落定,国产替代势在必行
Changjiang Securities·2024-11-13 06:41

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3][5]. Core Insights - The urgency for domestic technology self-sufficiency has increased, especially in the context of the recent U.S. elections and the risks associated with over-reliance on foreign technology [3][12]. - The domestic innovation industry has entered a phase of application implementation, with significant growth potential in upstream sectors such as chips, operating systems, databases, and middleware, where domestic production is currently below 10% [4][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of promoting technological independence to avoid being "choked" in critical areas, suggesting that the domestic technology sector will benefit from a new cycle of promotion under government support [5][22]. Summary by Sections International Context and Technology Independence - The report highlights the risks of excessive dependence on foreign technology, citing incidents like the Microsoft service disruption and the Russian system supply cut-off as examples of potential vulnerabilities [10][12]. - The U.S. government's actions against Chinese technology firms have intensified the need for self-sufficiency in key technologies, particularly in semiconductors and artificial intelligence [12][10]. Domestic Innovation Industry Development - The domestic innovation industry has evolved through several stages, currently reaching the application implementation phase, with a projected market size of 37,011.3 billion yuan by 2027 [4][18]. - The report outlines a "2+8+N" development model for the domestic innovation industry, indicating a focus on key sectors such as government, finance, telecommunications, and more [17][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading domestic companies in various sectors, including operating systems, databases, chips, office software, servers, and EDA [5][22]. - It suggests that the domestic innovation direction is likely to accelerate, driven by the need for technological self-reliance in the face of complex international relations [5][22].