固德威：Q3毛利率水平维持稳定，期待需求修复后的量利弹性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.943 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.51%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 0.09 billion yuan, down 99.03% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 1.796 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 11.17%. The net profit for Q3 was 0.32 billion yuan, down 78.64% year-on-year but up 550.84% quarter-on-quarter, which met expectations [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's Q3 inverter business saw a slight quarter-on-quarter decline, with a significant year-on-year drop due to overseas inventory factors. However, gross margins improved significantly compared to Q2, with overseas revenue expected to account for over half, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and Latin American markets. The average price of energy storage inverters in Q3 is expected to be higher, with an increased share from commercial applications, maintaining good gross margins [4][5]. Market Outlook - Short-term demand appears subdued, primarily due to the lack of improvement in terminal demand in the European market. However, the long-term growth trend for household and energy storage inverters remains clear. Demand in Europe is expected to improve significantly in 2025 following inventory depletion and interest rate cuts. The company is also expected to achieve significant breakthroughs in non-European overseas markets, indicating potential for volume and profit elasticity [5]. Incentive Plans - The company announced a draft for a restricted stock incentive plan, proposing to grant 1.76 million shares, accounting for 0.7% of the total share capital, to 187 individuals. This stock incentive is seen as a means to consolidate the core team and demonstrate the company's commitment to long-term development [5]. Future Profit Projections - The company is projected to achieve a profit of 640 million yuan in 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times [5].