傲基股份：公司首次覆盖：家居跨境电商翘楚，战略转型再起航

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Aoki Holdings (2519.HK) with a rating of "Buy" [3][13]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on home goods, which is showing positive results. The future expansion is expected to benefit from diversified channels and integrated supply chains, indicating promising growth prospects [2][3]. - The global online furniture and home goods market is projected to reach USD 779.4 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 16.6% from 2023 to 2028, outpacing overall global cross-border e-commerce growth [3][7]. - Aoki Holdings has positioned itself as a leader in the cross-border e-commerce space, ranking first in the B2C overseas e-commerce market for home goods based on GMV in 2023 [3][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Story - The report forecasts Aoki Holdings' net profit for 2024-2026 to be CNY 500 million, CNY 656 million, and CNY 815 million, reflecting a year-on-year change of -6%, +31%, and +24% respectively. The target price is set at HKD 18.2 [3][12]. 1.1. Profit Forecast - Revenue from product sales is expected to be CNY 77.9 billion, CNY 89.0 billion, and CNY 101.7 billion for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of +11%, +14%, and +14% respectively [9][10]. 2. Company Overview - Aoki Holdings has over a decade of experience in the cross-border e-commerce sector, focusing on high-quality furniture and home goods. The company has established a strong supply chain and logistics solutions to enhance customer experience [16][22]. 2.1. Historical Development - The company was founded in 2002 and has evolved through various phases, including a shift from traditional trade to e-commerce, establishing its own B2C platform, and focusing on brand development post-2013 [16][17]. 2.2. Shareholding Structure - The shareholding is concentrated, with the founder and co-founder holding a combined 28.41%, which supports operational stability [20][21]. 3. Industry Overview - The cross-border e-commerce industry is thriving, with significant growth potential in the home goods category. Aoki Holdings is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend due to its established supply chain advantages [3][7]. 4. Competitive Advantages - The company has a robust R&D and operational efficiency that enhances sales effectiveness. It collaborates with 810 manufacturing partners, ensuring rapid response to market demands [8][22].