Economic Data Summary - In October 2024, new credit increased by 500 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 238.4 billion[5] - New social financing (社融) reached 1.4 trillion, down 448.3 billion year-on-year, with a growth rate decline of 0.2% to 7.8%[5] - M1 and M2 growth rates showed signs of recovery, with M1 increasing by 1.3% to -6.1% and M2 rising by 0.7% to 7.5%[5] Monetary Supply Adjustments - M1's recovery was supported by a low base and improved real estate sales, with unit current deposits increasing by 765.3 billion year-on-year[5] - Non-bank deposits continued to grow significantly, with an increase of 1.08 trillion in October, contributing to M2's rebound[7] - Adjustments to M1 could potentially raise its growth rate by 3.9% to -3.3% if non-bank payment institution reserves and personal current deposits are included[9] Credit Structure Insights - Resident medium and long-term loans increased by 110 billion, a year-on-year rise of 39.3 billion, reflecting improved real estate sales[11] - Corporate medium and long-term loans have decreased for eight consecutive months, indicating weak corporate investment demand[11] Government Financing and Debt Management - The total scale of debt management in 2024 is projected at 3.2 trillion, with an expected net financing of 2.6 trillion in the last two months of the year[16] - The issuance of replacement bonds is anticipated to slightly boost social financing growth to around 8% by year-end[18] - Government bond financing in October was 1.05 trillion, down 514.2 billion year-on-year due to high base effects[19] Risk Considerations - There is a risk that the policy easing may not meet expectations, which could impact market stability[20]
10月金融数据解读：化债对社融的拉动有多大？
China Post Securities·2024-11-13 07:12