地产行业收租资产系列报告之八：聚焦预留现金对公募REITs分派率调节影响

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% over the next six months [17]. Core Insights - The report focuses on the impact of reserved cash on the distribution rate of public REITs, highlighting that reserved cash primarily comes from depreciation and amortization, which forms undistributed profits [2][3]. - Public REITs have shown good performance in the secondary market this year, driven by declining interest rates and market volatility, making their stable dividends attractive for investment [3][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of balancing operational expenses, yield, and investment efficiency concerning reserved cash, as it can affect the distribution rates of REITs [2][3]. Summary by Sections Reserved Cash Impact on REITs - Reserved cash can be distributed to investors, allowing some REITs to maintain dividends even during net profit losses, thus smoothing the distribution rate [2][6]. - The initial reserved cash is calculated based on the funds raised, external borrowings, and payments made for project company equity, which is crucial for operational stability [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on public REITs with stable distribution rates and operational performance, particularly new consumer infrastructure REITs expected to perform well in a low-interest environment [3][14]. - Companies with quality holding assets and mature operational capabilities, such as China Resources Land, Vanke A, and China Merchants Shekou, are recommended for investment [3][14]. Financial Projections - For the Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT, the projected EBITDA for 2024 and 2025 is 348 million and 388 million CNY, respectively, with actual distributable amounts expected to be 341 million and 365 million CNY after considering reserved cash adjustments [8][9].