银行业10月金融数据点评：淡化数量目标，直接融资占比提升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a slowdown in social financing growth, which aligns with expectations, while the proportion of direct financing has increased significantly [1] - The new social financing scale for October was 1.40 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 448.3 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Direct financing has strengthened, with the proportion of new direct financing rising from 34% at the end of 2023 to 45% in October 2024, primarily supported by government bonds [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Social Financing - The new social financing structure shows weak indirect financing and strong direct financing characteristics, with new government bond financing at 1.0496 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 514.2 billion yuan [1] - The report highlights that government bonds remain the main support for social financing, with expectations for accelerated issuance of local special bonds and more "expansive fiscal" policies [1] Credit Data - In October, new RMB loans amounted to 500 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 238.4 billion yuan, with the loan stock growth rate dropping from 11% at the end of 2023 to 8% in October 2024 [1] - The report notes that while credit demand remains weak, there are signs of recovery in household credit demand due to recent policy measures [1] Monetary Growth - M2 and M1 year-on-year growth rates for October were 7.5% and -6.1%, respectively, with M1 showing a marginal recovery, indicating improved social confidence and economic activity [1] - The report suggests that the active equity market, with daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan, has contributed to the M2 growth [1] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the financial sector, emphasizing a shift from "scale obsession" to "quality and efficiency" in credit support for key areas [1] - It recommends focusing on long-term core assets and high-dividend strategies, highlighting banks such as Changshu Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Ningbo Bank [1]