【宏观专题】全球货币转向跟踪第4期：超半数主要经济体开始降息

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy Trends - Over half of the major economies have started to cut interest rates, with 15 out of 26 tracked economies lowering rates since August[1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced the deposit facility rate from 3.75% to 3.25% in September and October, with expectations for further cuts[19] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations have cooled significantly, with the market now predicting a terminal rate of approximately 4% by the end of 2025, down from 3% in September[29] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates that the ECB will likely cut rates again in December 2024, maintaining a stable outlook for 2025[30] - The Bank of England is expected to lower rates 2-3 more times by September 2025, with the rate projected to fall to between 3% and 3.25%[30] - Japan's central bank is expected to remain cautious, with only one anticipated rate hike by September 2025, bringing the rate to 0.5%[30] Group 3: Liquidity and Market Conditions - The total assets of central banks in the U.S., Europe, Japan, and the UK decreased from $20.28 trillion in July to $19.97 trillion by the end of October, reflecting a contraction in liquidity[5] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has seen a reduction of $125.9 billion from July to early November, yet reserve balances have increased by $76.8 billion due to liquidity releases from ONRRP accounts[6] - Credit risk premiums remain low across major regions, indicating stable conditions in the credit market, with U.S. commercial paper-EFFR spreads turning negative, suggesting ample liquidity[9]