房地产行业周报（2024年45周）：推出12万亿化债“组合拳”，新房成交环比下降

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate sector, despite a decline in new home transactions [1]. Core Insights - The real estate index rose by 6.8% in the 45th week, ranking 11th among 31 primary industry sectors [1][11]. - A significant policy initiative was approved, involving a 12 trillion yuan debt relief plan, which includes increasing local government debt limits and issuing special bonds to support the real estate market [2][14]. - New home sales increased by 9% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions surged by 44% [4][22]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate index increased by 6.8% in the 45th week, ranking 11th among 31 sectors [1][11]. - The top-performing stock in the A-share market was Huaxia Happiness, with a cumulative increase of 60.2% [11][12]. Policy News - The central government approved a 12 trillion yuan debt relief plan, which includes a 6 trillion yuan increase in local government debt limits and 4 trillion yuan allocated from new special bonds for debt relief [2][14]. - Local governments are implementing various measures to stimulate the housing market, including adjustments to housing provident fund loan calculations and expanding eligibility for home purchase subsidies [16][17]. Sales Performance - In the 45th week, the average daily transaction area for new homes in 20 cities was 35.6 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 9% [4][22]. - The total transaction area for new homes from the beginning of the year to date in 20 cities was 96.4 million square meters, reflecting a 25% year-on-year decline [4][22]. Company Dynamics - Yuexiu Property reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 91.003 billion yuan for the first ten months of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 24.8% [3][19]. - Vanke provided a guarantee for a loan of 2.28 billion yuan to its subsidiary, increasing its total external guarantees to 121.728 billion yuan, which is 48.54% of its net assets as of the end of 2023 [3][19]. - Longfor Group's operating income for October 2024 was approximately 22.09 billion yuan, with total contract sales reaching 84.5 billion yuan for the year [3][19].