计算机行业2024年三季报总结：延续分化，布局景气改善赛道龙头

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [1]. Core Insights - The computer industry has shown a recovery in revenue growth for the first three quarters of 2024, with an overall revenue of 1,233.18 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.04%. However, net profit has faced pressure, declining by 11.22% to 24.03 billion yuan [1][9]. - The gross margin for the industry decreased to 16.17%, down approximately 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio improved slightly to 14.26% [1][22]. - The report highlights a continued divergence within the industry, with sectors such as cloud upstream, smart vehicles, and industrial software showing strong growth, while sectors like network security and securities IT are experiencing declines [3][27]. Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the computer industry achieved a revenue of 1,233.18 billion yuan, a 16.04% increase year-on-year, recovering from a decline of 2.81% in the same period last year. Excluding major server companies, revenue was 550.00 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.87% [9][10]. - The net profit for the same period was 24.03 billion yuan, down 11.22% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure despite revenue growth [13]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 16.17%, down from 18.65% in the previous year, reflecting a significant decline [19][20]. Segment Analysis - The report notes a continued divergence in performance across different segments. For Q1-Q3 2024, the cloud upstream sector saw a revenue growth of 33.58%, while sectors like network security and securities IT faced declines of 8.97% and 6.32%, respectively [3][27]. - The smart vehicle sector also showed resilience with a growth rate of 20.88% [3]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in sectors with expected improvements in market conditions, particularly in cloud computing and financial technology [3][27]. Specific Sector Insights - Cloud Computing: The cloud upstream sector continues to thrive, with leading companies reporting an average revenue of 85.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.58% [32]. - SaaS: The SaaS segment has faced challenges, with average revenue growth of only 0.02% for leading companies in Q1-Q3 2024, while net profit showed a decline [27][28]. - Financial Technology: The report indicates that while short-term performance is under pressure, there are new opportunities arising from market expansion [3][27]. Financial Metrics - The overall expense ratio for the industry decreased to 14.26%, with R&D, sales, and management expense ratios all narrowing [22]. - The industry’s accounts receivable totaled 433.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.40%, maintaining a stable proportion of 35.15% of total revenue [24]. Government Support - Government subsidies for the industry amounted to 4.31 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 24.11% [26].