智翔金泰：IL-17单抗销售表现亮眼，商业化稳步推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [4][8]. Core Views - The company has shown promising sales performance for its IL-17 monoclonal antibody, with revenue of 12.49 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a significant step in its commercialization efforts [1][2]. - The market for psoriasis drugs in China is projected to grow from 600 million USD in 2018 to 1.44 billion USD in 2022, with expectations to reach 9.94 billion USD by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 25% from 2025 to 2030 [2]. - The company is expected to leverage its first-mover advantage in the market, with a steady commercialization process that could rapidly unlock market potential [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 12.49 million yuan and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 546 million yuan, a year-on-year narrowing of 3.85% [1]. - The sales expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 69.21 million yuan, significantly up from 10.43 million yuan for the entire year of 2023, indicating increased investment in commercialization [2]. - R&D expenses remained high at 438 million yuan, reflecting ongoing investment in product pipeline development [2]. Product Pipeline and Development - The company’s key product, the IL-17 monoclonal antibody, has been approved for psoriasis treatment, with additional indications for axial spondyloarthritis moving into the NDA stage [3]. - Other pipeline developments include GR1802 for pediatric atopic dermatitis and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps entering Phase III trials, and GR1803 for multiple myeloma entering Phase II trials [3]. Revenue Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at 70 million yuan, 410 million yuan, and 1.16 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5876%, 461%, and 186% [3][6]. - The net profit loss is expected to narrow significantly as new products are launched and gain market traction [3].