房地产市场周报：财政增量政策将发力，关注房地产税收改革

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting that the market is expected to continue its recovery trend due to supportive policies and demand recovery [4][11][13]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a gradual recovery, with a notable decrease in the year-on-year decline of transaction volumes, indicating a potential stabilization [2][12][20]. - Recent policy measures, including tax reforms and financial support for real estate projects, are anticipated to enhance market conditions and stimulate demand [3][4][14]. - The long-term demand for housing remains significant, particularly in core cities, despite demographic challenges such as population decline [11][12]. Summary by Sections Current Market Overview - The transaction volume of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 28.31% week-on-week, but the year-to-date cumulative transaction area has seen a year-on-year decline of only 29.96%, indicating a recovery trend [2][16]. - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing from January 1 to November 10, 2024, shows a year-on-year decrease of 29.96%, reflecting a low absolute volume [3][16]. Policy Developments - The Ministry of Finance announced upcoming tax policies aimed at supporting the healthy development of the real estate market, which may include reductions in land appreciation tax and deed tax [3][14]. - A joint training session by the Financial Regulatory Bureau and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the expansion of the "white list" project financing mechanism to enhance project funding efficiency [14][15]. Market Data - As of November 10, 2024, the total available area of commercial housing in the top ten cities was 83,002.9 thousand square meters, with a stock depletion cycle of 60.84 weeks [31][32]. - The average transaction price of commercial housing in Shanghai increased by 2.71% week-on-week, indicating slight upward pressure on prices [22][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises in infrastructure, such as China State Construction and China Power Construction, as they are expected to benefit from ongoing policy support [4]. - Large state-owned real estate companies like Vanke, Poly, and China Merchants Shekou are recommended for their stable fundamentals amid improving sales conditions [4].