【策略专题】15年牛市的客观必然与脉络

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The 15-year bull market was primarily driven by liquidity easing during economic transformation, leading to asset price increases, particularly in the stock market from 2014 to 2015[1] - The monetary policy began to ease at the end of 2014, with a total of six interest rate cuts amounting to 1.65 percentage points from November 2014 to October 2015, while fiscal policy lagged behind[22] - During the bull market, the proportion of leveraged funds in the market peaked at 20% of the total free-floating market value, with on-market and off-market leverage ratios approximately 4:6[25] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The actual GDP growth rates were 7.7%, 7.3%, and 6.9% from 2013 to 2015, indicating a downward trend in economic fundamentals during the bull market[29] - The M2 money supply growth stabilized while social financing continued to decline, leading to excess liquidity and financial re-inflation[22] - The total amount of investable assets held by residents increased significantly, with stock holdings doubling from 5.3 trillion to 10.7 trillion yuan, and wealth management products also rising from 6.8 trillion to 13.9 trillion yuan[10] Group 3: Market Phases - The bull market can be divided into three phases: valuation repair, interest rate cuts leading to significant gains, and irrational rises driven by off-market financing[31] - The first phase (July to November 2014) saw a 21% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, while the second phase (November 2014 to January 2015) experienced a 38% rise[31] - The final phase (February to June 2015) resulted in a 68% increase, characterized by high trading volumes and speculative behavior[31]