农林牧渔行业投资策略周报：母猪存栏恢复缓慢，特水料有望迎来拐点

Industry Rating - Investment Rating: Buy [1] Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is experiencing a rebound in prices, with the average price of lean pigs reaching 18.15 CNY/kg, a week-on-week increase of 4.97% and a year-on-year increase of 26.83%. The fourth quarter is expected to maintain strong performance due to traditional consumption peaks [2][9] - The recovery of sow inventory is slow, with a 0.6% month-on-month increase in September. The industry is expected to remain in a prolonged state of prosperity [2][9] - The poultry sector is also showing signs of recovery, with white feather chicken prices rebounding and yellow feather chicken prices increasing by 1.2% week-on-week [2][9] Summary by Sections Livestock Farming - The average price of 7kg piglets has dropped below 300 CNY/head, indicating a pessimistic outlook for pig prices post-Chinese New Year. The recovery of sow inventory is expected to be slow [2][9] - Major companies recommended include Wen's Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and New Hope, with smaller firms like Tangrenshen and Tiankang Biological also highlighted [2][9] Feed and Animal Health - Prices for corn, soybean meal, and fish meal have decreased by 0.5%, 2.5%, and 3% respectively. The demand for pig feed is improving due to inventory recovery and secondary fattening [10] - The feed industry is expanding overseas, with companies like Haida Group expected to increase their market share domestically and contribute to new growth in overseas markets [10] Crop Production - The Ministry of Agriculture has approved several genetically modified corn and soybean varieties, indicating steady progress in the bio-breeding industry. Domestic soybean meal prices are around 3101 CNY/ton, down 2.5% week-on-week [11] - The overall supply of soybeans is sufficient, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [11] Price Tracking - As of October 11, the average price of lean pigs is 18.15 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 4.97% and a year-on-year increase of 26.83%. The average price of piglets is 458.52 CNY/head, down 22.08% week-on-week [12][26] - Chicken prices have also seen an increase, with the average price of white feather chicken at 3.67 CNY/kg, up 1.94% week-on-week [30]