10月金融数据点评：居民部门信贷需求回暖、M1触底回升

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Demand - In October, new social financing amounted to 1.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 448.3 billion yuan, with the growth rate of social financing stock falling by 0.2 percentage points to 7.8%[1] - Corporate short-term loans decreased by 190 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 13 billion yuan, while medium and long-term loans increased by 170 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 212.8 billion yuan, indicating weak financing demand in the real economy[2] - Resident short-term loans increased by 49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 154.3 billion yuan, and medium and long-term loans increased by 110 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3 billion yuan, reflecting improved consumer sentiment[3] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Market Conditions - M1 growth rate rebounded to -6.1%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.3 percentage points, primarily driven by a recovery in real estate sales[4] - M2 growth rate returned to the 7% range, with a month-on-month increase of 0.7 percentage points to 7.5%, supported by increased risk appetite in the equity market and accelerated fiscal fund usage[5] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.83 trillion yuan in October, contributing to M2 growth[6] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The sustainability of the recent improvements in credit demand and monetary supply remains to be observed, with potential structural changes in social financing due to local government debt replacement[7] - The impact of external factors, such as inflation risks in the U.S. and currency depreciation pressures, may negatively affect domestic demand recovery[8] - Risks include macroeconomic performance falling short of expectations, slower-than-expected demand recovery, and potential liquidity tightening beyond expectations[9]