批零社服行业跟踪分析：9月社零增速环比回升，关注双十一预售情况

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - In September 2024, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales in China was 3.2%, with a total retail sales amount of 4.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1 percentage points compared to August. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.66 trillion yuan, growing by 3.6% year-on-year [2][4] - The growth rate of rural social retail sales outpaced that of urban areas, with urban retail sales totaling 3.50 trillion yuan (3.1% year-on-year) and rural retail sales at 0.61 trillion yuan (3.9% year-on-year) [2][4] - The retail sales of goods in September amounted to 3.67 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, while catering revenue was 0.44 trillion yuan, growing by 3.1% year-on-year [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Consumer Goods - The growth of discretionary consumer goods remains under pressure, but there has been a month-on-month improvement. Retail sales of staple foods and beverages grew by 11.1% and declined by 0.7% year-on-year, respectively. The retail sales of cosmetics and gold and silver jewelry saw year-on-year declines of 4.5% and 7.8%, respectively, although both categories showed month-on-month improvements [2][4] E-commerce - The penetration rate of e-commerce increased month-on-month, with online retail sales of physical goods reaching 9.07 trillion yuan from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. The e-commerce penetration rate was 25.7%, up by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month [2][4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - For cosmetics: Focus on brands with strong market presence and solid Q3 performance, such as Juzi Biological, Runben Co., and Proya, as well as companies with improvement logic like Marubi and Betaini [2][4] - For jewelry: Pay close attention to changes in gold prices and brand discount adjustments, with a focus on companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang [2][4] - For offline retail: Companies like Miniso and Dazhong Holdings are recommended due to improved profit margins and strategic store closures [2][4]