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SharkNinja Inc：短期可能缺乏上涨催化剂，但依旧看好长期发展
SNSharkNinja(SN) 华兴证券·2024-11-13 12:25

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained with a target price of 122.25,representingan18122.25, representing an 18% increase from the previous target price [1][4] - The target price implies a 25x 2025 P/E and a 17% upside from the current price [4][6] Core Views - Expansion logic remains sound with strong fundamentals, driven by successful entry into new product categories such as outdoor fans, portable coolers, and cold beverage machines [2] - Short-term catalysts are lacking, and the stock may continue to fluctuate within the 90-110rangeoverthenext2−3months[3]−Revenueandadjustednetprofitfor2024areexpectedtogrowby27.5110 range over the next 2-3 months [3] - Revenue and adjusted net profit for 2024 are expected to grow by 27.5% and 35.2% YoY, respectively [2][4] Financial Performance and Forecasts - 2024E revenue is projected at 5.423 billion, up 27.5% YoY, with adjusted net profit of 607million,up35.2607 million, up 35.2% YoY [4][5] - 2025E revenue is forecasted at 6.100 billion, a 12.5% YoY increase, with adjusted net profit of 686million,up12.9686 million, up 12.9% YoY [4][5] - 2026E revenue is expected to reach 6.830 billion, growing 12.0% YoY, with adjusted net profit of 783million,up14.2783 million, up 14.2% YoY [4][5] Product and Market Expansion - Successful product launches, including the CREAMi ice cream maker, which now contributes high single-digit revenue share after initial slow growth [2] - Plans to expand SKUs for outdoor fans and portable coolers, with further growth expected in Europe [2] - New product categories such as semi-automatic coffee machines and multi-functional beauty devices are expected to drive future growth [2] Valuation and Peer Comparison - Current 2025E P/E of 21.3x, compared to the peer average of 13.8x [8] - SharkNinja's valuation is higher than peers like Whirlpool (9.8x 2025E P/E) and Reynolds Consumer (15.7x 2025E P/E) [8] Financial Ratios and Metrics - 2024E gross margin is expected to improve to 48.2%, up from 44.9% in 2023A [9] - 2024E adjusted net margin is forecasted at 11.2%, with ROE of 22.7% [9] - Free cash flow is projected to grow from 868 million in 2024E to $1.149 billion in 2026E [9]