2024年三季度国内经济回顾及中期展望：谷底爬坡，动能待夯实

Economic Overview - In Q3 2024, China's economy showed signs of marginal downward pressure, with GDP growth rates likely at their lowest for the year, around 4.0%[1] - The actual GDP growth rate for Q3 was 4.6%, slightly down from 4.7% in Q2, indicating a gradual slowdown in economic activity[13] - Consumer spending and investment were the main drags on growth, with final consumption contributing only 1.4% to GDP growth in Q3, down 0.8 percentage points from Q2[14] Policy Measures - A new round of policies aimed at stabilizing growth has been initiated, focusing on debt management, real estate stability, and consumer support[3] - The fiscal policy is set to achieve a growth target of 4.0% for general public budget expenditure, aligning with nominal GDP growth expectations[28] - Since September, several incremental policies have been introduced, including interest rate cuts and adjustments to housing loan rates, aimed at boosting market confidence and economic activity[24] Economic Indicators - M1 money supply growth showed signs of stabilization in September, indicating potential recovery in consumer spending and investment[40] - The PMI new orders index has improved slightly, suggesting a potential rebound in manufacturing activity, although supply-side conditions remain weak[41] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to show a narrowing decline, with CPI projected to rise to around 1% in the near term[1] Risks and Challenges - The ongoing transition from old to new economic drivers poses risks, particularly if consumer confidence and income levels do not improve significantly[3] - External demand is expected to weaken, which may necessitate further policy adjustments to maintain growth momentum[4] - The effectiveness of current policies in stimulating internal economic dynamics remains to be seen, as the short-term impact may be limited[3]