计算机行业：演进的信创：深度回顾与未来展望

Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The trend towards self-controlled information technology innovation (信创) is becoming increasingly significant, with a review of the past two rounds of policy stimulation indicating that the industry is moving towards large-scale implementation [2][17] - The performance of companies related to 信创 often falls short of expectations due to factors such as low information transparency and fluctuations in downstream payment capabilities [2][21] - The market for industry-level 信创 is expanding significantly, providing considerable growth opportunities for leading companies with market competitiveness and domestic attributes [2][21][34] Summary by Sections Recent Two Rounds of Policy Review and Experience Summary - The 信创 sector has developed rapidly since 2018, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic policy support, leading to a focus on self-sufficiency in IT [17][26] - The first round of large-scale 信创 implementation primarily focused on government and political sectors, while the second round has expanded to critical infrastructure industries such as energy and telecommunications [18][34] Current Perspective on 信创 - The industry is undergoing changes, with current holdings at historical lows, indicating potential for recovery [2][9] - Policy support, such as special national bonds, is expected to enhance the development potential of the 信创 industry [2][10] - The domestic production rate of core components like operating systems and CPUs remains low, suggesting significant growth potential for leading companies [2][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Kingsoft Office, Dameng Database, and Zhongwang Software, while also monitoring China Great Wall, China Software, and Nasda [2][12][41] - The report emphasizes the importance of considering macroeconomic risks and industry changes when selecting investment targets [2][12] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the 信创 market is significantly larger than the government sector, with a projected market capacity of approximately 1,012.6 billion CNY across eight key industries [2][38] - The performance of leading companies in the 信创 sector has shown significant volatility, with revenue growth rates declining post-2021 due to various external factors [2][41][45]