东吴证券：晨会纪要-20241114

Macro Strategy - The report highlights a significant improvement in credit structure in October, driven by government policies and a recovering real estate market, leading to a gradual restoration of credit willingness among micro entities [1][17] - October saw a notable increase in new RMB loans amounting to 500 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 238.4 billion, indicating a recovery in household loans, particularly short-term and medium-to-long-term loans [1][17] - The M2 growth rate rebounded to 7.5%, primarily due to the liquidity released from the recent reserve requirement ratio cut and increased non-bank deposits [1][17] Fixed Income Strategy - The relationship between convertible bonds and stock indices is generally positive, with a correlation coefficient of +0.86, indicating that movements in convertible bond indices often mirror those of stock indices [2][19] - The report identifies several "abnormal" periods where stock indices fell but convertible bonds did not, suggesting that a bull market in bonds can provide a protective floor for convertible bonds during stock market downturns [2][19] - The report anticipates that convertible bonds may continue to perform well in 2024, particularly if the stock market rebounds and if monetary policy remains supportive [2][19] Industry Insights - The food and beverage industry is expected to see a recovery in 2025, with a focus on stimulating domestic demand, particularly in the liquor sector, which is projected to improve after a period of decline [9] - The report recommends several stocks in the liquor sector, including Luzhou Laojiao and Moutai, as well as consumer goods companies like Three Squirrels and Yili, indicating a positive outlook for these companies [9] - The oil industry is facing downward pressure on global demand forecasts for 2025, with recommendations for companies like CNOOC and Sinopec, highlighting the need to monitor geopolitical factors that could impact oil prices [10][12]