证券行业2024年三季报总结：自营驱动净利润增长，期待四季度持续性

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the brokerage industry [3] Core Insights - The brokerage industry experienced a significant decline in fee-based business, with average daily stock trading volume dropping to 897.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. However, net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 showed a smaller decline of 6% compared to the previous year, indicating a recovery trend [5][13] - The report highlights that large brokerages continue to have significant advantages, recommending companies such as CITIC Securities, China Merchants Securities, Huatai Securities, CICC, and East Money [5][28] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The average daily stock trading volume for the first three quarters of 2024 was 897.6 billion yuan, down 7.8% year-on-year. The third quarter saw a further decline of 12% [13] - The financing balance decreased by 9.5% year-on-year, with a total of 1.44 trillion yuan as of September 2024 [14] - IPO issuance slowed significantly, with only 69 IPOs raising 47.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an 85% decrease year-on-year [18] - The equity market saw a substantial increase in September 2024, with major indices performing significantly better than the previous year [23] 2. Brokerage Firms' Financials - In the first three quarters of 2024, 51 listed brokerages reported a total revenue of 397.7 billion yuan, a decline of 3% year-on-year, while net profit was 112.4 billion yuan, down 6% [27] - The third quarter alone saw a revenue increase of 18% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 39% [27] - Self-operated income surged by 29% year-on-year, driven by a strong equity market performance [5][28] 3. Business Segments - Brokerage income fell by 14%, with a continued decline in commission rates expected [31] - Investment banking revenue dropped by 38% due to a slowdown in IPOs and regulatory tightening [5][28] - Asset management income saw a slight decline of 2% [5] - Self-operated income experienced a significant increase, with investment gains reaching 139 billion yuan, a 29% increase year-on-year [5] 4. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a 7% year-on-year increase in net profit for the brokerage industry in 2024, with expectations of positive growth continuing into 2025 [5][28] - The current price-to-book ratio for the brokerage industry is 1.64, indicating potential for valuation improvement as market conditions stabilize [5][28]