万润股份：沸石及医药拖累，业绩阶段性承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 11.59 [1] - The sector rating is Outperform [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to weak demand for zeolite and pharmaceutical products, but the growth potential from new materials is promising [2] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 13.01% YoY to RMB 2.763 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping by 48.57% YoY to RMB 296 million [2] - In Q3 2024, revenue fell by 26.84% YoY to RMB 806 million, and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 56.65% YoY to RMB 80.69 million [2] - The company's gross margin declined to 40.08%, down 2.17 percentage points YoY, while R&D expenses increased due to higher investment in new materials [2] - The company is expanding its presence in new materials, including OLED, semiconductor, and PI materials, with several projects underway [2] Financial Performance - For 2024E, the company's revenue is expected to be RMB 3.679 billion, a decrease of 14.5% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected at RMB 400 million, down 47.5% YoY [3] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 0.43, with a P/E ratio of 26.9x [3] - The company's EBITDA for 2024E is estimated at RMB 997 million, down 25.7% YoY [3] - The net profit margin for 2024E is expected to be 10.9%, a significant drop from 17.7% in 2023 [6] Business Developments - The company established a joint venture with BOE Materials, Debon Technology, and Yeda Economic Development to focus on electronic materials R&D and sales [2] - The company plans to list its subsidiary, Jiumu Chemical, on the New Third Board, which specializes in OLED sublimation materials [2] - The company is investing in multiple new material projects, including OLED materials, PI materials, and fuel cell proton membrane materials, with significant growth potential [2] Valuation and Forecast - The report adjusts the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 to RMB 0.43, RMB 0.58, and RMB 0.71, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26.9x, 20.0x, and 16.3x [2] - The company's ROE is expected to decline to 5.5% in 2024E but recover to 8.3% by 2026E [6] - The EV/EBITDA ratio for 2024E is projected at 11.9x, improving to 7.7x by 2026E [6]