中泰证券：晨会聚焦-20241114

Group 1 - The report focuses on evaluating the refinancing capabilities of regional investment platforms, highlighting their high dependence on bank loans as a primary refinancing channel [2] - The refinancing structure of urban investment platforms is being optimized due to debt reduction policies, with tighter control on non-standard financing [2] - A bank credit indicator system is constructed to analyze the differences in refinancing capabilities from both the urban investment platform and bank perspectives [2] Group 2 - The report identifies significant differences in the credit structure between key and non-key provinces, with key provinces showing a higher proportion of policy banks and state-owned banks in their used credit [2] - Non-key provinces generally exhibit higher market recognition, although Hebei province has a lower proportion of joint-stock banks in its used credit [2] - The report notes a downward trend in the unused credit ratio and the proportion of joint-stock banks in regions like Shaanxi, Tibet, Guizhou, and Jilin, indicating weakened refinancing capabilities [2] Group 3 - The report suggests that the proportion of used credit and the proportion of joint-stock banks in used credit can serve as leading indicators for potential risk events in urban investment platforms [2] - The analysis reveals that banks show higher risk preferences for regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Fujian, Hebei, Beijing, and Chongqing, with varying preferences across different provinces [2] - The report concludes that the refinancing capabilities of cities with the highest unused credit ratios and joint-stock bank proportions are predominantly located in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Shandong [2]