国君机械|先进芯片进口或受阻,加速前道设备国产化

Investment Rating - The report suggests that if the import of 7nm and more advanced process chips is restricted, the development of high-end mobile phones and high-performance computing in China will be adversely affected [1][2]. Core Insights - The breakthrough in 7nm and more advanced process chips is primarily focused on: 1) Accelerating the upgrade and localization of front-end process equipment; 2) Speeding up the development of advanced packaging. These measures are expected to accelerate the domestic substitution process of semiconductor equipment, particularly benefiting the currently low localization rate segments such as measurement, ion implantation, coating and developing, etching, and deposition [1][2]. - TSMC plans to suspend the supply of 7nm and more advanced process chips to AI/GPU customers in mainland China starting November 11. This is expected to accelerate the domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment, with bottleneck equipment likely to benefit significantly. Currently, the main foundries capable of mass production of 7nm process logic chips globally are TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. The domestic production of 7nm and below process chips is constrained by equipment and process bottlenecks, which cannot meet domestic demand. If the export restrictions on 7nm and below process chips from non-American foundries like TSMC are implemented, there will be an increased supply-demand gap for these chips in China [2]. - Advanced packaging is expected to accelerate as another means to enhance chip performance. Driven by Moore's Law, chip performance improvement has increasingly relied on front-end process miniaturization, which has diminishing returns. Advanced packaging is becoming a method to surpass Moore's Law for chip performance enhancement. If the import of 7nm chips is restricted, domestic breakthroughs in front-end processes are expected to advance alongside the development of advanced packaging, facilitating the domestic breakthrough of 7nm and below process technology. Compared to traditional packaging, advanced packaging introduces new processes primarily based on front-end processes, with significant contributions from cleaning, CMP, bonding, etching, and thin-film deposition. Equipment in these areas is expected to benefit from the expansion of domestic advanced packaging [3].