美国通胀系列八：商品型通胀降，服务型通胀升

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In October, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, matching expectations and slightly up from the previous value of 2.4%[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.3% year-on-year, consistent with September and higher than August's 3.2%[6] - Month-on-month, CPI rose by 0.2%, in line with expectations, while core CPI increased by 0.3%[2] Group 2: Key Influences on Inflation - Food prices decreased by 2.1%, while energy prices fell by 4.9%, although energy showed a recovery of 1 percentage point[5] - The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, but new job additions dropped to 12,000, indicating a potential impact on core inflation resilience[6] - The divergence in inflation trends suggests that while commodity inflation is declining, service inflation is showing signs of resilience, particularly in housing and transportation[28] Group 3: Market Implications - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 50 basis points in September reflects concerns over economic downturns outweighing short-term inflation resilience[5] - The current market environment is characterized by uncertainty, with geopolitical factors and domestic economic conditions influencing interest rate expectations[34] - Future fiscal expansion is anticipated to provide a term premium, necessitating close monitoring of market expectations and inflation dynamics[34]