追风逐光系列三：钙钛矿电池如何引领光伏技术迭代

Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the electrical equipment industry as Positive, indicating an expectation of overall sector returns outperforming the benchmark index by more than 10% [5] Core Viewpoints - Perovskite solar cells are seen as a key direction for future photovoltaic technology due to their higher theoretical conversion efficiency (33% for single-junction and 45% for tandem cells) and lower projected costs (0.5-0.6 RMB/W) compared to crystalline silicon cells [1] - Perovskite technology is still in the early stages of industrialization, with challenges in stability and manufacturing processes needing to be addressed for large-scale production [2] - Tandem cells (four-terminal and two-terminal) are highlighted as a significant advancement, with four-terminal tandem cells expected to industrialize faster due to simpler processes, while two-terminal tandem cells are seen as a mid-term solution, and all-perovskite tandem cells as the ultimate goal [3] - Both non-silicon and crystalline silicon companies are entering the perovskite field, with non-silicon companies pioneering the technology and silicon companies focusing on tandem cell development to enhance their existing silicon-based products [4] Summary by Sections 1. Perovskite Solar Cell Development Potential - Perovskite solar cells are part of the third generation of photovoltaic technologies, offering higher efficiency and lower costs compared to first-generation crystalline silicon and second-generation thin-film technologies [9] - The theoretical efficiency of perovskite single-junction cells is 31%, with tandem cells reaching up to 45%, significantly higher than the 29% limit of crystalline silicon cells [13] - Perovskite production costs are projected to be around 0.5-0.6 RMB/W, nearly half the cost of crystalline silicon cells, with lower investment requirements (5 billion RMB/GW compared to 9-11 billion RMB/GW for silicon) [14][15] 2. Challenges in Perovskite Industrialization - The main obstacles to perovskite industrialization are material stability and large-area manufacturing [16] - Perovskite cells currently have shorter lifespans compared to crystalline silicon cells, primarily due to degradation caused by light, heat, water, and oxygen [16][18] - Large-area manufacturing is challenging due to difficulties in achieving uniform crystallization, which affects conversion efficiency [19] 3. Efficiency Improvement Pathways - Tandem cells are a key strategy for improving efficiency, with four-terminal tandem cells expected to industrialize faster due to simpler processes, while two-terminal tandem cells are more complex but offer structural advantages [3][32] - Additive engineering, interface optimization, and optical performance enhancement are critical for improving the efficiency of single-junction perovskite cells [30] - All-perovskite tandem cells are considered the ultimate solution due to their high theoretical efficiency and low cost, but stability issues with narrow-bandgap perovskites remain a challenge [37] 4. Competitive Landscape and Industry Integration - Non-silicon companies like GCL Photoelectric, Xinneng Photoelectric, and CATL are leading the development of perovskite technology, while traditional silicon companies like LONGi Green Energy and JinkoSolar are focusing on tandem cell development [4][39][41] - Silicon companies may acquire non-silicon perovskite companies to accelerate industry integration and leverage their technological advancements [4][49] - The collaboration between silicon and non-silicon companies is expected to drive the industrialization of perovskite technology, with four-terminal tandem cells being a common focus [47][48] 5. Market Projections - The perovskite solar cell market is projected to reach 200 GW by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 191%, corresponding to a market size of 100 billion RMB [38]