美国10月CPI点评：“再通胀”叙事重演

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. October CPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, ending a six-month decline and exceeding the previous value of 2.4%[3] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.3% year-on-year, consistent with expectations and the previous value[3] - Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.2%, while core CPI increased by 0.3%, both aligning with past averages[3] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose from 60% to 80%[4] - Major asset prices showed slight fluctuations, with the S&P 500 index closing flat, the Dow Jones up by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.3%[4] Future Inflation Outlook - The U.S. inflation is expected to enter a bottleneck period in 2025, with projected CPI and core CPI central levels at approximately 2.3% and 2.7% respectively[5] - Housing prices have rebounded since June 2023, which may support overall inflation due to the housing component's 37% weight in CPI[5] Market Trends - Since mid-September, the implied inflation expectations for 5Y and 10Y TIPS have risen from around 1.9% and 2.0% to approximately 2.4%[5] - The current high levels of implied inflation expectations and low rate cut expectations suggest that the market is pricing in a re-inflation scenario, although further upward movement may be limited[5]