【宏观快评】财政支持地产政策点评：隐秘的增量

Group 1: Policy Announcements - The Ministry of Finance and other departments released tax policies to support the real estate market, including adjustments to deed tax and land value-added tax, which exceeded expectations for both residents and enterprises[1] - The deed tax for home purchases under 140 square meters is reduced to 1%, while for homes over 140 square meters, the tax is set at 1.5% for first homes and 2% for second homes[4] - The land value-added tax pre-collection rate is lowered by 0.5 percentage points across regions, with eastern regions now at 1.5%, central and northeastern regions at 1%, and western regions at 0.5%[5] Group 2: Financial Implications - The special bonds for land reserves are expected to reach a scale of 4 trillion yuan, which may significantly impact local government financing and liquidity in the real estate market[6] - The capital market currently underestimates the potential impact of these policies, which could release substantial liquidity previously tied up in land acquisition by local government financing vehicles[6] - If the special bonds are reissued next year, local governments could see immediate economic benefits from projects that align with central strategies or local needs[7] Group 3: Market Outlook - The upcoming fiscal policies are expected to provide additional incremental support before the annual Two Sessions, with a higher probability of upward risk appetite in the market[2] - The overall sentiment indicates a rare and highly certain active window for investment opportunities in the near term[2]