房地产：财政政策逆周期调节力度加大，有望进一步推动房地产“止跌回稳”

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the real estate sector [5]. Core Insights - The recent approval of a 10 trillion yuan local government debt replacement policy is expected to alleviate the debt pressure on local governments, enhancing their financial capabilities and potentially benefiting the real estate sector [2][3]. - The total amount of hidden debt that local governments need to manage before 2028 has significantly decreased from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan, reducing the annual burden from 2.86 trillion yuan to 460 billion yuan [2]. - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a 0.9% year-on-year increase in national commercial housing transactions in October, marking the first positive growth after 15 consecutive months of decline [4]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The government is planning to introduce supportive tax policies for the real estate market, including adjustments to value-added tax and land value-added tax [3]. - Special bonds will be issued to support the recovery of idle land and the acquisition of existing residential properties for affordable housing [3]. Market Recovery - The core logic for the real estate sector moving forward is "stabilization after decline," with expectations for a long-term recovery in the market fundamentals [4]. - The report highlights that the government's debt ratio is significantly lower than that of major economies, providing room for further fiscal policy maneuvers [3]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the easing of debt pressure and the introduction of new policies will create favorable conditions for the real estate sector, presenting potential investment opportunities [4].