计算机行业2025年度投资策略：科技内需，自立自强

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the computer industry, projecting revenue and profit growth for 2025 due to fiscal stimulus policies and improved cost control measures by companies [1][18]. Core Insights - The computer sector is approaching a performance inflection point, with fund holdings remaining at historically low levels. The computer index has risen by 15.70% year-to-date, slightly underperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 19.61% [1][10]. - Two major trends are emphasized: the comprehensive prosperity of AI and the robust development of domestic software and hardware (信创) [2][3]. - Key industry trends include the launch of HarmonyOS NEXT by Huawei, the emergence of low-altitude economy, and the increasing importance of data elements and financial IT [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The computer index has slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index year-to-date, with a 15.70% increase compared to 19.61% for the CSI 300. However, it has shown strong performance since September 24, 2024 [1][10]. - Key sectors such as financial IT, Huawei chain, and low-altitude economy have led the gains in the computer sector [10][12]. Industry Trends - AI is entering a phase of comprehensive prosperity, with rapid advancements in models, computing power, and applications. Major cloud service providers are significantly increasing their capital expenditures to meet the strong demand for AI computing power [2][32]. - The domestic software and hardware sector is expected to accelerate its development, driven by government support for technological self-reliance [2][3]. Financial Analysis - The computer sector's revenue remained stable in the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.53%, while net profit declined by 9.0%. The sector is expected to recover in 2025 due to fiscal stimulus and improved cost management [12][18]. - The gross margin for the sector was 36.45% in the first three quarters of 2024, down 1.27 percentage points year-on-year [16][18]. Fund Holdings - As of the end of Q3 2024, the fund holding ratio for the computer sector was 2.95%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a low level of investment interest [19][20].