2024年11月各类资产表现简评及展望

International Asset Performance and Outlook - U.S. stocks are viewed optimistically due to a favorable political environment and strong economic data, with the Republican Party's victory in the presidential election and Congress providing a conducive environment for continued growth[16] - U.S. Treasury bonds are expected to experience short-term adjustments but remain bullish in the long term, with limited upside potential for yields in the short term[17] - Gold prices have adjusted downward post-U.S. election but are expected to rise in the long term due to a new investment paradigm influenced by multiple factors[17] Domestic Asset Performance and Outlook - Chinese equities are cautiously optimistic in the short term but bullish in the medium term, with the Wind All-A Index rising 37.91% from September 24 to November 11, 2024[34] - Chinese government bonds are cautiously optimistic in the short term, with short-term opportunities potentially greater than long-term ones[35] - The manufacturing PMI has risen above the 50-point threshold, indicating expansion[20] Macro Data and Policy Developments - The U.S. CPI and core CPI remained stable, with the CPI meeting expectations[5] - The U.S. dollar index rose from 100.9420 on September 18, 2024, to 106.4839 on November 13, 2024[9] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased from 3.65% on September 11, 2024, to 4.44% on November 13, 2024[12] - London spot gold prices adjusted from $2,777.80 on October 30, 2024, to $2,598.75 on November 13, 2024[15] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected major macroeconomic events and macroeconomic data falling short of expectations[37]