交运：从航空十倍股，我们看到什么？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the aviation industry, indicating expected returns above the market benchmark by over 10% [29]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is entering a favorable demand-supply cycle, which has historically driven stock performance upward [1]. - Domestic air travel demand has shown resilience, with passenger turnover exceeding pre-pandemic levels, indicating a strong recovery trend [5]. - The supply side is facing constraints due to slow aircraft deliveries and an aging fleet, which will limit capacity expansion in the coming years [10][13][16]. Summary by Sections Demand - Domestic air travel demand has recovered significantly, with passenger turnover reaching 708.9 billion passenger-kilometers in December 2023, surpassing 2019 levels by 6.2% [5]. - International routes are also seeing accelerated recovery as countries ease visa restrictions, with expectations for further demand growth as group travel resumes [8]. Supply - The introduction of new aircraft is slowing down due to supply chain issues and the impact of the pandemic, leading to a cautious approach in capacity expansion [10][13]. - The average age of aircraft in major airlines is high, with Air China having an average age of 9.36 years, which may necessitate the retirement of older planes in the near future [16]. Short-term and Long-term Recommendations - Short-term focus should be on smaller airlines, while long-term investment is recommended in airlines with strong network capabilities, such as Air China, which has a well-structured domestic route network [21].