2024年三季度宏观经济及大类资产配置分析与展望：经济增速延续放缓，增量政策效果初现

Economic Growth - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year[5] - In Q3, GDP growth was 4.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from Q2[5] - Final consumption's contribution to GDP growth significantly declined, contributing only 49.9%, down 10.6 percentage points from previous values[11] Policy Measures - A series of incremental policies were introduced in September, including accelerated issuance of special bonds, aimed at stabilizing the economy[6] - The government has approximately 5 trillion yuan available for fiscal spending in Q4, which is expected to support economic growth[6] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment maintained a high level, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.2% in the first nine months of 2024[18] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) showed a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, but this was a decrease from previous months[18] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth was 3.3% year-on-year in the first nine months, with a marginal increase to 3.2% in September[20] - Consumer confidence remains low, with the consumer confidence index dropping to 85.8, a historical low[20] External Pressures - External pressures include ongoing trade tensions with the US and EU, which are expected to impact exports negatively in Q4[26] - The export growth rate in September was 2.4%, a significant drop of 6.3 percentage points from previous months[20] Inflation and Prices - CPI in September rose by 0.4%, but the core CPI was at a low of 0.1%, indicating deflationary pressures[22] - PPI continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 2.8% in September, affecting corporate profitability[23] Financial Stability - Government bond financing remains a major support for social financing, with M2 growth stabilizing at 6.8% in September[27] - The overall financing scale in Q3 was 7.56 trillion yuan, higher than the average of previous years[27] Future Outlook - The economic growth target for Q4 is set at 5.4% to achieve an annual growth rate of 5%[26] - The anticipated economic growth for Q4 is approximately 5.3%, supported by fiscal spending and infrastructure investment[6]