钢铁行业：化债方案符合预期，关注后续宏观政策预期博弈

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry, with specific companies such as Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, and Jiu Li Special Materials recommended for "Buy" [1][2]. Core Insights - The fiscal debt reduction plan aligns with expectations, with a focus on the effectiveness of policy implementation and supply-side measures. The government plans to allocate 800 billion yuan annually from new local government bonds for five years, totaling 4 trillion yuan to replace hidden debts. This is expected to enhance local debt resources significantly [2][3]. - The macroeconomic policy has shown a clear shift, with expectations of fiscal stimulus and supply-side contraction, leading to a potential rebound in steel prices. The report suggests that the steel sector's profitability is at a low point, indicating significant upside potential as macro policies take effect [2][3]. - The report highlights that the current demand for steel is relatively weak, with a slight decrease in production and profitability across various steel products. The average daily pig iron production has decreased, and the overall steel price has shown a downward trend [3][10][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - The steel sector increased by 5%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.5 percentage points [9]. - Notable stock performances include Shagang Co. with a weekly increase of 23.41% and Angang Steel with a decrease of 7.52% [9]. 2. Fundamental Weekly Tracking 2.1 Steel Price Trends - National steel prices have generally declined, with rebar prices averaging 3,510 yuan per ton, down by 70 yuan [10]. - The Platts price index has shown a recovery, while iron ore inventories have decreased [12]. 2.2 Production and Demand - The operating rate of blast furnaces has decreased to 82.29%, with a weekly production drop of 5.8 million tons across five major steel products [3][22]. - The average daily pig iron production is reported at 2.3406 million tons, reflecting a slight decline [3][24]. 3. Industry Dynamics 3.1 Key Industry News - The announcement of a 10 trillion yuan fiscal debt reduction plan is a significant development, with implications for the steel industry [26]. - The implementation of the "Air Quality Improvement Plan" in Fujian Province aims to reduce independent coking and sintering capacities, impacting the steel sector [28]. 3.2 Company Announcements - Fushun Special Steel announced a share repurchase plan, intending to buy back shares at a maximum price of 8.5 yuan per share, with a total repurchase amount between 70 million and 100 million yuan [28].