2024年10月美国CPI数据点评：美国通胀符合预期，12月降息概率提升

Inflation Data and Trends - October US CPI increased by 2.6% YoY, up from 2.4% in September, matching market expectations[4] - Core CPI remained steady at 3.3% YoY, with a monthly increase of 0.3%, consistent with market forecasts[4] - Energy prices stabilized in October with a 0% monthly change, compared to a -1.9% decline in September[6] - Housing prices rose by 0.4% MoM in October, up from 0.2% in September, contributing to persistent inflation[6] Market Expectations and Fed Policy - Market probability of a 25BP rate cut in December rose to 80.7%, up from 58.7% the previous day[4] - Fed officials expressed uncertainty about future rate cuts, leading to fluctuations in bond yields and the dollar index[8] - The Fed is likely to adopt a cautious "slow and steady" approach to rate cuts, balancing employment and inflation targets[8] Sector-Specific Inflation Trends - Core services inflation, excluding housing, slowed to 0.4% MoM in October, down from 0.6% in September[7] - Core goods inflation remained flat in October, with a 0% monthly change, driven by a decline in apparel prices[7] - Used car and truck prices rose by 2.7% MoM in October, continuing an upward trend from the previous month[7] Labor Market and Economic Outlook - Wage growth and stock market gains continue to support consumer spending, adding to service inflation stickiness[8] - Labor market cooling and elevated bond yields increase the likelihood of a December rate cut to achieve a "soft landing"[8]