美国10月CPI数据解读：通胀波澜不惊

Inflation Data - The overall CPI in the US increased from 2.4% to 2.6% year-on-year in October, aligning with market expectations[2] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, also meeting previous values and expectations[2] - The month-on-month CPI growth remained stable at 0.2%, consistent with prior values and forecasts[2] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the Dow Jones increased by 0.11%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.02%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.26%[2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose from 58.7% to 82.8%[2] Future Outlook - The report suggests that inflation has nearly stagnated in recent months, with the "last mile" of disinflation remaining challenging[2] - Potential policy changes under a new administration could reignite inflation concerns, shifting market focus back to inflation narratives[2] - The expectation for rate cuts in 2025 may be overly optimistic due to economic resilience and policy uncertainties[2] Price Trends - Recent commodity price rebounds are not expected to be sustainable, with October showing stable month-on-month commodity prices[2] - Used car prices saw their largest increase since May 2023, while clothing prices reversed their previous gains[2] - Core services saw a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, with housing services rebounding to 0.4%[2]