社服行业周报：24Q3板块业绩承压，关注冰雪游表现

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [5][27]. Core Viewpoints - In Q3 2024, the social service sector is experiencing performance pressure, particularly in the tourism and scenic area, with total revenue of 26.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.14%, and Q3 revenue of 10.825 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.59% [2][10]. - The hotel and catering sector shows a decline in revenue, with total revenue of 22.598 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.58%, and Q3 revenue of 8.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.22% [2][12]. - The report highlights a strong performance in winter sports tourism, with a 22% increase in hotel bookings for skiing in northern regions compared to last year [3][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Sector Performance Tracking - The social service industry index rose by 2.65% in the week of October 28 to November 1, ranking 4th among all primary industries [4][8]. - Sub-industry performance varied, with hotel and catering down by 0.54%, tourism and scenic areas down by 1.52%, education up by 17.72%, and professional services down by 3.23% [4][8]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Q3 2024 Social Service Sector Performance Pressure - The tourism and scenic area revenue growth has slowed due to a high base from the previous year, with Q3 net profit of 1.749 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.78% [2][10]. - The hotel and catering sector's Q3 net profit decreased by 33.53% to 618 million yuan, reflecting ongoing supply-side pressures [2][12]. 2.2 Improvement in September Retail Data - National retail sales in September grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with a notable increase in household appliances and audio-visual equipment sales [13][14]. 3. Industry Dynamics - Ctrip reported a 22% increase in ski hotel bookings for this winter compared to last year, with significant growth in regions like Heilongjiang and Hebei [3][19]. - Hubei province saw a 12.7% increase in tourist numbers and a 17.8% increase in tourism revenue as of the end of October 2024 [20][21]. - The government has set a target for the ice and snow economy to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030, emphasizing the importance of winter sports [20][21]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Songcheng Performing Arts, ShouLai Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Zhongxin Tourism, Keri International, and Zhongjiao Holdings for potential investment opportunities [5][22].