美国经济：去通胀速度放缓

Inflation Trends - The October CPI inflation rate remained stable month-on-month, with a slight increase from 0.18% to 0.24%, aligning with market expectations of 0.21%[1] - Year-on-year CPI growth rebounded from 2.4% in September to 2.6% in October, primarily due to base effects[1] - Energy prices saw a year-on-year decline narrowing from 6.9% to 4.8%, while gasoline prices decreased by 0.9% month-on-month[1] Core CPI Insights - The core CPI month-on-month growth slightly decreased from 0.31% to 0.28%, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%[2] - Rent inflation showed a minor rebound, with the month-on-month growth of rent increasing from 0.2% to 0.4%[2] - Super core service prices, excluding rent, experienced a slowdown, with significant declines in auto insurance and education services[2] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a cautious approach to further rate cuts, potentially lowering rates by 25 basis points in December and an additional 50 basis points next year, targeting a year-end federal funds rate of 3.75%-4%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to decrease from 4.2% at the end of this year to 4% by the end of next year[3] Long-term Inflation Uncertainty - Long-term inflation uncertainty is increasing, with Trump's policy plans potentially raising inflation levels and instability[3] - Demand stimulation from tax cuts and deregulation, along with tariffs raising goods prices, could contribute to inflationary pressures[3] - The labor market slowdown may lead to a decrease in core service inflation, suggesting a potential gradual decline in inflation over the next two quarters[3]