中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收肖雨：“特朗普交易”或进一步分化——10月美国通胀数据点评-20241114

Core Insights - The October inflation data in the U.S. shows a year-on-year CPI increase of 2.6% and a core CPI increase of 3.3%, aligning with market expectations [2] - Following the U.S. elections, market focus has shifted to the economic fundamentals, with the October inflation data serving as a critical reference for assessing the economic outlook and interest rate trajectory [2] - The rebound in October inflation indicates that the previous downward trend in inflation has been disrupted, with core inflation remaining at 3.3% for three consecutive months, suggesting significant resistance to further declines [2] Inflation Data Analysis - The October CPI increased by 0.2 percentage points compared to September, marking the first rebound since April of this year [2] - The primary driver for the inflation increase was the rebound in energy prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions, while food prices showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1% and energy prices a decrease of 4.8% [2] - Housing inflation and core service inflation both rebounded in October, with housing CPI at 4.9% and core service inflation at 4.5%, indicating strong economic momentum and potential inflationary pressures [2] Market Implications - The "Trump trade" narrative is evolving post-election, with market dynamics shifting from a singular focus on the election outcome to a combination of strong economic fundamentals and revised interest rate expectations [2] - The strong U.S. economy and inflation risks suggest that a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields are likely, while gold prices may face downward pressure due to economic growth expectations [2]