机械行业2025年策略：地产基建、顺周期链反攻发力；新驱动持续

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a clear policy shift, with domestic demand gradually stabilizing, suggesting that current investments should balance supply-side and demand-side considerations, focusing on two main directions: recovery sectors and emerging sectors [2]. - Key areas of focus include industrial gases, engineering machinery, automation, and new technologies such as humanoid robots and photovoltaic equipment [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Sector Review - The mechanical sector's overall valuation is at the 51.10% percentile historically, with a PE ratio of 36.99x and a PB ratio of 2.35x as of November 8, 2024 [6]. - The overall holding ratio for the mechanical sector is 2.18%, with significant holdings in service robots and 3C equipment [6]. 2. Policy Shift - Continuous fiscal policies are being implemented to support the real estate market and local government debt resolution, with significant increases in local government debt resources [15]. - The report highlights the importance of counter-cyclical fiscal policies and the stabilization of the real estate market [15]. 3. Investment Strategy Recovery Sectors - Industrial Gases: The market is expected to see a rebound in both volume and price, with liquid gas prices stabilizing [2]. - Engineering Machinery: Domestic sales are showing signs of recovery due to counter-cyclical policies, with excavator sales in September 2024 increasing by 10.8% year-on-year [17]. - Automation: Demand is gradually recovering, with a shift in focus towards traditional industries and 3C sectors [25]. Emerging Sectors - New Technologies: Focus on humanoid robots, digital printing, and photovoltaic technologies, with recommendations for companies like Honghua Digital and Greentech [3]. - New Markets: Emphasis on global competitiveness in industrial products, particularly in oil and gas equipment and high-altitude work platforms [3]. 4. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies within the mechanical sector, highlighting their market positions and growth potential [4].