房地产交易税减免，增加需求还是供给？

Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance announced a reduction in housing transaction deed tax, with rates set at 1% for properties under 140 square meters and 1.5% and 2% for first and second homes over 140 square meters respectively, effective December 1[1] - The exemption of value-added tax (VAT) for homes sold after two years in first-tier cities will be implemented, aligning these cities with other regions[1] - The deed tax reduction is expected to marginally boost housing demand, although its impact is limited compared to income and housing price expectations[1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The reduction in deed tax will lower the total price of homes, enhancing buyers' purchasing power, particularly in first-tier cities where reliance on debt is high[1] - The cancellation of VAT for non-standard residential properties may increase the supply of larger second-hand homes, with a limited overall impact on demand[1] - The current real estate market is experiencing a deep adjustment, primarily affecting supply-side issues such as slow completion and delivery of projects[1] Group 3: Economic Implications - The overall effect of the tax changes may accelerate the downward adjustment of housing prices towards equilibrium levels, facilitating a quicker stabilization of the real estate market[1] - The core issue affecting demand in second and third-tier cities is the weak industrial base, rather than transaction taxes[1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monetary policy in mitigating risks in the real estate market and improving liquidity for developers[1]