海外观察：2024年10月美国CPI：预期之内的通胀，强化年内小步伐降息

Inflation Data - October US CPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, matching expectations, and up from 2.4% previously[2] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, consistent with expectations and unchanged from the previous month[2] Key Drivers of Inflation - Short-term factors and base effects contributed to the CPI rebound, with housing remaining a sticky component in core CPI[2] - Food prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, while energy prices remained flat, with energy commodities down by 1.0%[3] Core Components - Used cars and trucks saw a significant increase of 2.7% month-on-month, contributing 0.05% to the CPI[3] - Housing prices showed strong stickiness, rising by 0.4% month-on-month, indicating persistent inflationary pressure[3] Market Reactions - Following the inflation report, the probability of a 25bps rate cut in December rose from around 60% to over 80%[4] - The divergence in US Treasury yields reflects differing expectations for short-term and long-term inflation[4] Risks and Considerations - Potential impacts of tariffs on imported goods could affect US inflation dynamics[4] - Geopolitical risks remain a concern for market stability[4]