食品饮料周专题：关注扩内需政策催化，立足中期坚守确定性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, and an "Accumulate" rating for other companies in the sector such as Jiuziyuan, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinhuijiu [1][8][9]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand expansion policies and suggests a two-step recovery process for the food and beverage sector, with a focus on companies with strong performance certainty and increasing dividend rates [5][7][8]. - The food and beverage sector is expected to experience a short-term valuation recovery followed by a medium-term improvement in fundamentals, benefiting from policies that stimulate business consumption [5][7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Focus - The report discusses the support from the National People's Congress for local government debt replacement, which is expected to enhance local development momentum. The total debt replacement space is projected to reach 10 trillion yuan, with 6 trillion yuan in new debt limits and 4 trillion yuan in special bonds [5][6]. 2. Core Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong brand power and the ability to navigate through cycles, specifically highlighting Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye. Other recommended companies include Jiuziyuan, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinhuijiu in the liquor segment, as well as Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer in the beer segment [8][9]. 3. Market Review and Valuation Tracking - The food and beverage index increased by 7.12% in the week of November 4 to November 8, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.62 percentage points. The report notes that the beverage sector has shown strong performance, particularly in health products, snacks, and pre-packaged foods [11][12]. 4. Macro and Industry Key Data Tracking - In October 2024, the CPI rose by 0.3%, with food and beverage CPI increasing by 2.0%. The PPI decreased by 2.9%, and retail sales in September grew by 3.2%, indicating a mixed economic environment [21][22].