美国CPI点评（2024.10）：特朗普未至高通胀已袭，美联储降息挑战重重

Group 1: Inflation Data - The U.S. October CPI increased by 0.2 percentage points from September to 2.6% year-on-year, while the core CPI remained steady at 3.3% for the third consecutive month[1] - The core CPI rose by 0.28% month-on-month in October, marking the second-highest monthly increase in six months[1] - The main driver for the overall CPI rebound was a narrowing decline in oil prices due to a lower base effect[1] Group 2: Wage and Inflation Dynamics - There are emerging risks of further wage growth in the U.S. that could lead to a new round of inflation transmission, particularly as Trump's second term begins in January 2025[1] - The core CPI's persistence is attributed to core goods, non-rent services, and rent, with the first two closely linked to wage dynamics[1] - Rent prices increased by 0.35% month-on-month in October, improving by 0.12 percentage points from September, indicating potential upward pressure on inflation[1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Challenges - The combination of high fiscal deficits, loose monetary policy, and protectionist measures is contributing to sustained high inflation levels, reducing the necessity for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year[1] - The report anticipates that the core inflation may experience a slight decline in the first half of 2025, opening up a potential for two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points[1] - However, after mid-2025, the implementation of Trump's policies could reignite wage inflation, significantly limiting the Fed's ability to cut rates further[1] Group 4: Market Implications - The U.S. dollar index, which recently surged above 106, may continue to experience volatility and could strengthen further[1] - There are increasing pressures for the renminbi to depreciate, which may constrain monetary easing options for the Fed[1] - Risks include the possibility that the Fed's rate cuts may be smaller than expected and increased depreciation pressure on the renminbi[1]