电力行业2025年度投资策略：寻找定价新秩序

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electricity industry, emphasizing the search for a new pricing order [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that 2024 will be a significant year for the electricity industry, with coal, hydro, and nuclear power being re-evaluated by the market. The main focus for 2025 is on the reconstruction of a new order, particularly favoring undervalued sectors [1][10]. - The report suggests prioritizing offshore wind energy due to favorable policies, solid fundamentals, and significant growth potential. It also notes the need for a restructuring of the valuation system for traditional green energy [1][11]. - For coal power, the report outlines three strategies to navigate the market's volatility, emphasizing the importance of short-term performance expectations and long-term positioning [1][36]. Summary by Sections 1. New Pricing Order - 2024 is expected to be a transformative year for the electricity sector, with a focus on the re-evaluation of coal, hydro, and nuclear power [10]. - The report suggests that the reconstruction of the valuation system will be crucial, with a preference for offshore wind energy and improvements in traditional green energy [1][10]. 2. Offshore Wind Energy - The report identifies three key reasons for favoring offshore wind: a long-awaited policy response, robust fundamentals, and substantial development potential. As of 2023, offshore wind capacity was only 37 GW, representing less than 3% of total installed capacity, indicating significant future growth opportunities [1][11][27]. - Recent policy changes are expected to positively impact the offshore wind sector, addressing previous challenges related to subsidies and project development [12][13]. 3. Traditional Green Energy - The report notes that traditional green energy is facing pressure on its fundamentals, but there are signs of marginal improvements. The valuation system for green energy is in need of restructuring, with a focus on companies with high ROE [28][29]. - The report highlights the chaotic valuation system in the green energy sector, suggesting that companies with strong fundamentals may be undervalued [29][30]. 4. Coal Power Strategies - The report outlines three strategies for coal power investments: focusing on short-term performance expectations, adopting a long-term perspective, and being adaptable to changes in coal prices [36][43]. - It emphasizes that the market's pricing of coal power is influenced by short-term performance rather than long-term profitability, with a focus on the upcoming electricity pricing consensus for 2025 [33][34]. 5. Hydro and Nuclear Power - The report suggests a top-down narrative for hydro and nuclear power, with hydro power expected to maintain stable performance and nuclear power benefiting from a clear growth trajectory [38][40]. - It recommends monitoring the economic recovery and interest rate trends as key factors influencing the performance of hydro and nuclear assets [38][39]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on offshore wind operators, particularly in coastal provinces, and suggests specific companies such as Zhongmin Energy and Funiu Co. for investment [42][43]. - For traditional green energy, it advises selecting companies with high ROE and low PB ratios, such as Jinkai New Energy and Three Gorges Energy [42][43].