交通银行2024年三季度业绩点评：盈利能力稳健，贷款增量可观

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company's profitability remains robust, with significant loan growth and stable net interest margin. The ratio of overdue loans and loans under scrutiny has decreased quarter-on-quarter, leading to the maintenance of the "Outperform the Market" rating [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue growth rate was -1.39%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company grew by -0.69%. In Q3 2024, revenue increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 1.2% year-on-year, showing improvement compared to Q2 2024 [3] - The net increase in loans for Q3 2024 was 174.4 billion, with retail loans increasing by 73.9 billion and corporate loans increasing by 82.2 billion. Year-on-year growth rates for retail and corporate loans were 8.2% and 6.5%, respectively [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for Q3 2024 was 1.32%, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter. The provision coverage ratio was 203.87%, indicating sufficient risk coverage. The proportion of loans under scrutiny decreased by 8 basis points to 1.58%, and overdue loans decreased by 6 basis points to 1.39% [4] Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.28%, remaining stable. In Q3 2024, the net interest margin was 1.23%, a decrease of 2 basis points quarter-on-quarter. The yield on interest-earning assets decreased by 7 basis points, while the cost of interest-bearing liabilities decreased by 17 basis points, indicating a favorable trend in funding costs [4] Valuation and Forecast - The forecasted EPS for 2024-2026 is 1.1, 1.12, and 1.15 yuan, with net profit growth rates of -3.56%, 1.42%, and 2.81%, respectively. The reasonable value based on the DDM model is 9.2 yuan, and the PB-ROE model gives a 2024E PB valuation of 0.65 times, leading to a reasonable value range of 8.47-9.2 yuan [5][6]