银行：国有大行资本补充历史复盘

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the banking industry [2] Core Views - The report reviews the history of capital replenishment for major state-owned banks since 1998, focusing on the background, implementation methods, and specific outcomes of each round of capital replenishment [2][10] - The current capital replenishment is seen as a proactive measure to enhance the banks' ability to support the real economy, given the narrowing interest margins and declining profitability [7][38] Historical Capital Replenishment 1998: Ministry of Finance injected 270 billion yuan into the four major state-owned banks - In 1998, the Ministry of Finance injected 270 billion yuan into the four major state-owned banks to stabilize market expectations and prevent potential bank runs [3][11] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reduced the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) from 13% to 8%, releasing approximately 240 billion yuan, which was used by the banks to purchase special treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance [13][15] - Post-injection, the capital adequacy ratio of the four major banks temporarily reached 8% [13] 2003-2008: Central Huijin injected a total of $79 billion into the four major banks - From 2003 to 2008, Central Huijin injected a total of $79 billion into the four major banks using foreign exchange reserves [4][16] - By the end of 2002, the average capital adequacy ratio of the four major banks was only 4.27%, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio exceeding 25% [17] - Post-injection, the core capital adequacy ratios of the banks exceeded 8%, and they subsequently went public to further strengthen their capital [24] 2010-2012: Major state-owned banks replenished nearly 200 billion yuan through rights issues - From 2010 to 2012, major state-owned banks replenished nearly 200 billion yuan through rights issues, with some banks also using convertible bonds and private placements [5][27] - The implementation of Basel III in 2010 led to higher capital requirements, prompting the banks to replenish capital [28] - The rights issues in 2010 increased the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratios of the banks by 0.76 to 1.74 percentage points [29][30] 2013-Present: Capital replenishment needs decreased - After the capital replenishment from 2010 to 2012, the core capital of major state-owned banks became relatively sufficient, and the need for capital replenishment decreased [6][34] - Since 2013, only Postal Savings Bank (PSB) has gone public, and Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) and PSB have replenished core capital through private placements [35][37] Current Capital Replenishment - The current capital replenishment is aimed at enhancing the banks' ability to support the real economy, given the narrowing interest margins and declining profitability [7][38] - As of Q3 2024, it is estimated that the six major state-owned banks would need to replenish approximately 1.07 trillion yuan to increase their core tier 1 capital adequacy ratios by 1 percentage point [39][40] - The potential dilution of shares varies depending on the pricing method, with dilution ranging from 7.1% to 17.5% under different scenarios [40]