艾罗能源：多因素影响Q3收入确认，明年量利弹性可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Airo Energy (688717 SH) [5] Core Views - Airo Energy's Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 823 million, up 35 39% YoY but down 8 45% QoQ [3] - Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 57 million, up 33 96% YoY but down 16 77% QoQ [3] - The company's Q3 revenue decline was attributed to factors such as typhoon impacts on shipment confirmation, weakened demand in emerging markets, and European summer holidays [3] - Airo Energy is expected to achieve profits of RMB 300 million and RMB 600 million in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding P E ratios of 37 and 16 [4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Airo Energy reported revenue of RMB 2 407 billion, down 39 93% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 160 million, down 84 24% YoY [3] - Q3 operating expense ratio was 28 2%, down 2 2 percentage points QoQ, with R&D expenses reaching a historical high of RMB 150 million [4] - Accounts payable and notes payable at the end of Q3 reached RMB 1 41 billion, up 18% QoQ and hitting a record high [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to expand through new markets (Pakistan, Ukraine, South Africa) and new products (European commercial storage cabinets, residential low-voltage storage inverters, low-voltage storage batteries, microinverters) [4] - The European market, a key strength for Airo Energy, is expected to see demand recovery as channel inventories decrease [4] - The US and Japanese markets are also anticipated to contribute more to the company's performance [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to be RMB 3 523 billion in 2024 and RMB 5 515 billion in 2025 [8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at RMB 265 million in 2024 and RMB 624 million in 2025 [8] - EPS is expected to be RMB 1 65 in 2024 and RMB 3 90 in 2025 [8]